Showing posts with label Kan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kan. Show all posts

Sunday, October 24, 2010

China, North Korea and the Remilitarization of Japan

Once again, China is in the news in Japan. The recent riots and demonstrations in China, as well as loud noises coming from North Korea, have the Japanese government in their perennial tizzy.

Here's a news report from this morning about demonstrations in China:



This news report is very disturbing. For one, how could so many younger Chinese people even care about this nonsense? And, then, the video showing the Japanese prime minister at a military drill reminds one of the 1930's.

It just goes to show you how insane nationalism makes people. Joe Sobran has great thoughts on that subject.

Is this the kind of sensationalism we have come to expect from the MSM? Well, yes it is.

These sorts of events have our inept Japanese government upset. Actually, I'd imagine that, in many ways, they are happy about these things as it gets the attention of the people off the disastrous condition of the domestic situation and economy.

As Breitbart reports:

Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Sunday the security situation around Japan has become more severe, given North Korea's missile and nuclear developments, as well asChina intensifying its marine activities.


While attending the inspection parade of Ground Self-Defense Force at Asaka base in Tokyo and referring to China's military enhancement, Kan said, "We need to keep a posture that enables us to cope with various situations effectively."

"In order to build a truly effective defense capability, we will compile an outline of a new defense program by the end of the year that will meet future needs," he said.

He also showed willingness to enhance the Japan-U.S. alliance and promote activities to improve international security.


It should come as no surprise that this situation repeats itself in different forms. I have offered a solution that I originally wrote in 2006 and was published on Lew Rockwell. Of course the Japanese prime minister's name has changed but the situation hasn't really basically changed at all.

I stand by these recommendations and think that this is the only way forward for Japan.

Please read it and comment if you agree or disagree:

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The Paradox of Japanese Remilitarization
by Mike Rogers


In order for Japan to repent completely for past deeds and war crimes while returning to the fold as an equal partner in peace with her Asian neighbors, a seemingly monstrous contradiction must occur. Japan will be obliged to renounce her pacifist constitution – specifically Article 9 of the constitution – and create her own standing army so that she can become a normal independent nation, pursuing her own independent foreign policy and interests.

Until Japan does renounce Article 9, she will never be able to come out from under the US security umbrella and, in turn, be able to create and maintain relations with her neighbors on an equal footing. Japan must create her own military again in order to rid herself of US occupation and control.
Nevertheless, the notion of renouncing her pacifist constitution understandably causes Japan’s neighbors to become very nervous due to Japan’s past Asian aggression. This is the paradox of Japanese remilitarization.

Today’s Japan is at a crossroads. The US security umbrella that Japan has lived under these past 60 years often hampers relations between Japan and her neighbors. Japan’s economic relations with those neighbors hum along at a fantastic rate, while her political relations are constantly hindered by political stumbling at home and Japan’s security agreement with America. Even though many Japanese are beginning to think that staunchly supporting the United States is not a good idea with over 75 percent "quite dissatisfied" with Japan’s support of the illegal invasion of Iraq, Japan today is at the beck and call of the American empire.

But what can Japan do about the current situation? Many people in Japan feel that the US-Japan security agreement is an outdated and ill-fitting rented suit that must be changed. But how?

One solution has been presented by the current Japanese Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and looks like it might be acted upon in 2006. Koizumi wishes to revise Article 9 of the constitution that renounces Japan maintaining a standing military. As former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone said, "(Revising Article 9) would make Japan a ‘normal country’ that can share responsibilities and cooperate with the world …" Even though some politicians like Nakasone are also against prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine, this policy of revising the Japanese constitution has drawn much criticism from China, Korea, and the Japanese Left.

Also, though many countries and groups object to any proposed changes to Japan’s pacifist constitution, would these changes signal a hard-right shift in Japanese politics? Would these revisions put still more strain on a China already under enormous pressure from a very belligerent United States? Would a remilitarized Japan be what the US empire really wants?

Not necessarily. Incredibly, in the long run, a Japan with a foreign policy independent of the United States just might be much better at reducing Asian-Pacific tensions than a Japan that is a lap-dog of the USA.

In many ways, this entire matter is merely a problem of semantics. Japan’s Self-Defense Force is currently called Jieitai;the name of this force is to be changed to Jieigun, which translates into Self-Defense Army. To westerners, this may seem like a minor detail. But in a country that is filled with contradictions and has a language that holds hundreds of words meaning the same thing, albeit with slightly different nuances, this minor change can lead to major changes, depending on how it is interpreted. Would this change confirm that Japan is rearming and could pose a threat to her Asian neighbors once again? Or is this just another enigmatic problem of modern Japan that requires deeper consideration of the psyche and linguistics of today’s Japanese nation?





"Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. 2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized."
As of 2004, Japan is already in the world’s top five in military spending. Will changing Japan’s military status make any real difference? Does Japan having her own military spell trouble for China or Korea? Leftists and some critics say that it does. But after researching this issue, I have to conclude that it does not. I have become convinced that the only way Japan will ever be able to free herself from US control and handle her own foreign affairs with all of her Pacific neighbors as an equal partner will be to renounce Article 9.

Many of Japan’s neighbors complain that Japan accedes to the USA’s every wish and whim. I’d have to agree with that; in fact I complain about it as much as anyone. But I would add that if Japan’s Asian neighbors want Japan to get away from the US security umbrella, then they have to expect that Japan will want to be treated as an equal partner in all discussions and problems.

Thus, Japan escaping from the US security agreement is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, an independent Japancan take a dissenting opinion to the USA on Asian disputes. On the other hand, Japan will have to have her own military to do so. To this very day, Japan is treated as a junior in all aspects of her relations with all of her Pacific neighbors. China, Korea, and the rest of Asia will have to realize that they cannot have their cake and eat it too.

The Japanese are a very pragmatic people. An independent Japan will require an independent Japanese military. To expect Japan to leave the US security agreement without having a standing military of her own is absurd. No politicians in any country would last in office for an hour if they allowed their country to fall into the precarious position whereby its national or economic interests could not be protected in an emergency. To think that any country's politicians could is completely ignorant.

In spite of what you may read in the mass media, Japan is still under US occupation in 2006. Undeniable evidence of this can be found in the fact that Japan doesn’t even fully control her own airspace or her own territorial waters.

For example, for over the last 20 years Japan has been begging the United States to give her back the airspace above and around areas of Tokyo. Here is an extract from an article entitled U.S. to return part of Yokota airspace that appeared in the Japan Times on March 12, 2006.





"The United States has basically agreed to return part of the airspace over Yokota Air Base in Tokyo as part of the realignment of U.S. military forces in Japan, informed sources said Saturday.
"The basic agreement is expected to alleviate the overcrowding caused by the 470 commercial flights that must take detours around the so-called ‘Yokota RAPCON (Radar Approach Control)’ area each day.


"The Yokota RAPCON covers the airspace above Tokyo and eight prefectures – Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Niigata, Nagano and Shizuoka. The military airspace is 7,000 meters high at its northern part and 3,700 to 5,500 meters in its southern part near Tokyo.


"Flights bound for western regions, such as Chugoku and Kyushu, have to ascend to avoid entering the banned airspace, while flights originating from those regions must make a detour south of Yokota, according to the transport ministry.


"The agreement, however, will effectively shelve Japan’s request for the complete return of the airspace, which it has been seeking since the 1980s."

You’ve heard of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq having an illegal "no-fly zone" imposed on it, but I bet you didn’t know until now that the USA still enforces one over Japan.

After reading the above, is there anyone who believes that US occupation of Japan ended in 1952? Today, there are over 50,000 US troops stationed in Japan. In a recent survey, 63 percent of the Japanese people wanted the US troops out. The US military is a huge financial strain on Japan.

Another article that appeared on Japan’s Kyodo newswires on March 12, 2006 reported that the US was returning three military bases on Okinawa to Japan. Kyodo also reported that Japan looks set to cover the broken down empire’s $8 billion estimated cost of removing 7,000 US marines from Okinawa and sending them to Guam. (I calculate that at $1.14 million per marine. Those guys must have a lot of luggage.) Many Japanese wonder why Japan must pay for the removal of US troops from Japanese territory to another US colony in the Pacific.

The choice is clear: the only way Japan can become a normal country, treated as an equal by her Pacific neighbors, is to walk along the very same road her neighbors do. It would be a wonderful thing if every nation in the world would have a constitution that renounced military force and prohibited a standing army; it would be fantastic if war were abolished forever, but that is not the way things are. Japanese pacifists will blast me for stating this opinion, but as I have written about many times, the Japanese are, in many ways, very romanticist. It is a lovely and artful, heartwarming way to be, but unfortunately it is not the way the world works.

Would a remilitarized Japan, free of US control, become more neighborly with China and Korea? Considering economic trends and business ties, one would hope and strongly suspect so. But, either way, in order to investigate those possibilities, Japan must escape from the grasp of the US.

Japan’s goal should be to rid herself of US occupation and control. After that, in order to maintain peace, Japan will have to negotiate with her Asian neighbors on an equal footing in an atmosphere of trust and mutual respect. Unfortunately, because of the way things are done, to do so will require Japan to change her pacifist constitution more in line with the way everyone else does things. In order for Japan to become friendlier with her Asian sisters, she will once again have to support a military, like a normal country. It is fact-of-life. It is unfortunate that Japan must support a military to do so. It is most fortunate if doing so allows her to return to her Asian family.

In this insane world, every normal country has a military. A normal country honors its military dead. 

That is the tightrope walk for Japan’s politicians today: Japan must fulfill the requirements of any normal country while reassuring her neighbors of peaceful intentions.

This is the huge paradox of Japanese remilitarization.
  • Thanks to Bevin Chu
  • Edited by Jeremy Irwin

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Japanese Politics, Yen vs. Dollar and the Price of Gold

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers


Today's Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention into the price of the Japanese yen versus the dollar now explains why Naoto Kan was kept on as president of the DPJ and will continue as Prime Minister of Japan: It was all a back-door deal. Wheeling and dealing as usual.


"Scratch my back and I'll scratch yours."


All this time Kan was reluctant to prop up the yen and then, suddenly, he wins the vote and the next day, his so-called "principles" are out the door and the BOJ jumps into yen intervention head-first for the first time in six-years (after it was proven it didn't work the first time).  Well, at least that explains why he was kept on.


My favorite economic blog in the world, Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, has an excellent
analysis on the idiocy of the BOJ intervening in the price of the Japanese Yen versus the US dollar.


Mish cynically writes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention:


It has been proven time and time again that currency intervention does not work. Yet, somehow it is "good for the government to show its strong stance". (Referring to foolish remarks by investment strategist Takao Hattori at Mitsubishi UFJ bank).


He also adds later in the same article:


If the Yen does drop in a sustained way, it will not be because of the intervention, but rather because the Yen had outrun fundamentals and was simply ready to drop.


Even though Japan had been complaining that a strong yen was hurting their exports, records show that Japan actually had strong exports in July 2010:


JOHN VAIL, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT

"Clearly the U.S. is not going to be too friendly towards it although they may not argue too much about it in that Japan is a big customer for its Treasury securities."

"I'm not sure we are going to see a major weakening of the macro statistics in Japan, but if we do that would obviously help weaken the yen, but exports were quite strong in July both on a nominal and real basis so it's a bit of a quandary for Japan."

"But the biggest problem for Japan is not the U.S. cross rates, it's the Korean won, and the Korean won has just been ridiculously weak. Yet G20 officials have yet to really pressure Korea on this at all, which I think is really to Japan's detriment."



I highly recommend reading Mish's entire blog on the subject as he is a much better expert on this than I, but I want to point out something here that is missed by most people as to what happened to the price of gold, in yen, immediately after this market intervention. And how government intervention - any government intervention - distorts the marketplace and creates problems for investors and business men alike.


Today, Sept 15, 2010, the opening price per gram of gold was ¥3426 per gram. This was before the BOJ intervention in the price of the yen versus the dollar.


This price was realized after strong gold gains in New York overnight where gold closed at $1268.70 on Sept. 14, 2010. This created the gold price of ¥3426 a gram as stated in the previous paragraph. At that time the yen was trading at ¥82.27 per dollar.


Then, at about 10:30 am Tokyo time, the BOJ intervened and the price of the yen dropped from ¥82.27 per dollar to nearly ¥85 per dollar. This caused the Nikkei 225 to soar.


It also caused the price of gold to jump too. 


In just a moment, the day's price of gold went from ¥3426 a gram to ¥3461 a gram... 


Now, most gold owners would celebrate at this information, but a closer look reveals that this is not all that great and that, even the supposed "experts" think that this intervention won't matter as market fundaments are what's driving the price of the yen.


As the NPR reported:



"The effect from Japan's solo intervention won't last very long. We have to see how the U.S. and European monetary authorities would react," said Yuji Kameoka, chief forex strategist at Daiwa Institute.
The intervention came a day after Prime Minister Naoto Kan held onto power after fending off a challenge from veteran lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa for the ruling party presidency. Ozawa had advocated currency intervention, but Kan had until now been reluctant to act.


So now, one again, things make perfect sense. Ozawa was willing to intervene in supporting the yen. Kan wasn't. Ozawa was a big money politician who had a dirty image; Kan wasn't... Ozawa played the sneaky back-door smoke-filled room deals; Kan was supposedly a "new face" and not a part of the "Good Old Boys" ....


But that's all gone now. 


Kan and his people got the votes they wanted by promising to prop up the yen... It's business as usual in Japan, folks.


The politicians in this country and even the Bank of Japan are not concerned about the well-being of the average Japanese person. They will do whatever they can to keep the Ponzi scheme going for as long as they can... The can has been kicked down the road once again....


A few months ago, Kan said he wouldn't prop up the yen because he was worried that, due to debt, Japan would become like Greece... But, here we are.


Thank God that these politicians look out for number one... Thank God they will do whatever it takes to get elected....


The Japanese people be damned.


PS: Normally I would be thrilled with a ¥81 a gram rise in the price of gold... But when it is due to price manipulation of currency... What should anyone be?


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Keywords: gold, Ponzi, Ichiro Ozawa, Kan, Mish, Marketing Japan

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

I Can't Believe That Kan Won the Election

OK. I was wrong... I wrote that I thought for sure that Ichiro Ozawa would be president of the DPJ and then the next prime minister of Japan... But, nope. I was wrong...

Those idiots in the DPJ reelected a guy who helped them get throttled in the last election? They reelect a guy who actually went and told people in public that he wanted to raise taxes!

I knew something was wrong when I was riding in a car and saw on a billboard the the yen had gone up in value again! It's like my friend Andy wrote, "The cost of imported goods like food and energy should be falling for Japanese consumers, which is just what we need. But the BOJ is against Japanese consumers and will act to help their pals in the export sector."

I've been in Japan for over 26 years and still am surprised by how useless and inept the politicians in Japan are.

Maybe the DPJ wants to be booted out of power in the next general election.

That would explain this result.

Anyhow, I was wrong...  I am an idiot.

I might write about this more tomorrow morning...

Friday, August 20, 2010

Marketing Japan: Insanity Reins in Japanese Government Circles

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

The news out today informs us that, in spite of 20 years of fiscal stimulus that has done nothing but destroy the economy and ruin the lives of countless Japanese people, the current Japanese government has learned nothing and is considering another fiscal stimulus plan. As Yahoo reports:

Faced with meager growth and a strong yen, the country's leaders are moving toward injecting more stimulus measures to fight a sharp slowdown in momentum. 


See? The guy on the left works for the government.


They've been doing the same thing over and over since 1989 and look where it has gotten Japan. Why do they think this same old plan is going to work differently this time? It is the definition of insanity to repeat a process and expect a different result every time. So they are either insane or just plain stupid. I suspect stupid and I will prove it to you later in this article...

Of course, just like the west, or the USA, it doesn't matter what political party is in power at the time, the only answers they have to any of our problems is an expansion of the government and increased spending. They consistently pay lip service to controlling the budget, but we never hear of the practical measures that you or I would take if, say, our household financial situation were out of control: That would mean cutting spending. Oh no! Whether it is the left, right or center, no political party has the will to do what's right and cut spending on the government. They will, of course, cut spending on things that the public actually wants, like libraries or schools, but to cut spending on government staff, the military or pet projects? No way. They always want to increase taxes or increase the money supply (print more money).

But it will be a tricky task for Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who is also juggling a promise to reduce the country's massive debt and a possible challenge for leadership of the Democratic Party next month.


Kan has asked his Cabinet for ideas that limit new spending, suggesting tax and regulatory reforms as potential alternatives.
These idiots always hide tax increases by calling them "tax reforms" but don't be fooled! "Tax and regulatory reforms" always mean an increase in both taxes and regulations. Because that's what governments do; they work to increase themselves. (If you want to read more about this from a USA perspective, check out Mish).

Hopefully, this idiot Kan and his party will get thrashed in the next elections. I think they most probably will and then we will have our 7th prime minister in 6 years and the government deadlock - which is the best we can hope for - will continue (at least when there is deadlock, no new laws or taxes can be passed!)

But now let me go back to my claims that these guys and Kan are just plain stupid. Read that above line again. It says:

Kan has asked his Cabinet for ideas that limit new spending, suggesting tax and regulatory reforms

See? We already know that "tax and regulatory reforms" means "tax and regulation increases." Top that off with this moron Kan actually saying in public, during the last election, that he wanted to double sales tax from 5% to 10%! Think about this, folks: Anyone who is stupid enough to run on a platform that actually tells the public, in public, that they will raise their taxes if elected deserves to get stomped. Well, they deserve worse, but I think lynching is against the law.

Guess what? Kan's party did get stomped in the last election where they did this. I wrote about that here. Now they are going to try the same thing again? Hilarious... Well, it would be hilarious if it weren't true.

If the past is any judge of the future, then this is what will happen in Japan, unfortunately:

Kan's party will be stupid enough to run on a policy that has tax increases built into the platform. They will soundly lose the election. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) will return to power. Once in power, the LDP will implement some sort of  "tax and regulatory reforms" (for meaning of "tax and regulatory reforms" see above).

Ultimately, the real problem in Japan boils down to this: the core of the problem is the economy. The economic problem is too much public debt; more spending will only make it worse. Every time the Japanese government passes a stimulus bill, they take one hundred yen from the Japanese people, then hand back fifty yen, then they cannot figure out why the economy continues to decline! 

Add to that the aging of the Japanese population; not enough babies are being born in Japan to support this entire mess. Now they want to put the public into even more debt and to raise our taxes.

I predict the Nikkei 225 at 7,000 - or lower - by August of 2011 - even with the stimulus!

The Japanese economy death spiral will continue.
 
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