Excuses and Professionals

I'm super busy today and haven't the time to do anything, even blog, but I have a few thoughts I wanted to get down today.


First, let me just borrow from Seth Godin on his blog:


Excuses are easy to find (but worthless)

Even good excuses, really good ones, don't help very much.
Explanations, on the other hand, are both scarce and useful.
And accurate forecasts and insightful intuition are priceless.


Seth is great and I get his notices in the email daily. I often think he is talking to me (or is he working in the same office as I do with the same people?) He always has great insight.


There, seems to me, three points here in his latest.


The first point is, when you make a mistake, no one wants to hear your excuses... Pros admit their mistakes and try to learn from them. Try to become professional and become insightful


The second thing is a message about "what is a professional?" I think many people need to seriously consider this question. 


In the past, I have witnessed corporation leaders and top management getting berated for making a mistake by their seniors or major shareholders or company owners. I've also seen, incredibly, these upper management people begin to pout after being reprimanded. Seriously.


No. I do not exaggerate. These people are adults yet they folded their arms in front of their bodies and began to pout like 13-year-old children. 


I was amazed that executives in their late 40's (some in their late 50's) could pout like children, but I have seen many so-called adults in the business world act like little kids in the past.


I remember one particular time when one gentleman began pouting that his senior got angry at him and said,


"You say you are professional? You sure don't act that way. Here's how a professional acts: Take the example of a baseball pitcher in the big game. He makes a mistake and throws up a bad pitch that is hit for a home run. Now, does that professional pitcher go back to the mound and pout? Or does he get back into the game and try to win?"


This guy's boss, who said this, I thought was a real leader. Kind of reminded me of General Patton. 


The third point is how to become a professional?


Let's take something like the Internet and Social Media. It's a new thing and many people are doing it. But how many people are really professional? Not many (in spite of all the Twitter notices you get from so-called experts).


I've been blogging everyday, sometimes more than three times a day, for more than a year. I have written more than 250 articles for Lew Rockwell.com since 2004. Yet, I do not consider myself a professional. I'm still learning.


But, from what I see around me, if I were to use a grading system like Karate,  I'm probably about a Green Belt; or, if my Sensei is kind, I might be the lowest rank of a Brown Belt at blogging. If I keep this up for many more years, maybe someday I will become a Black Belt. It won't be easy.


Becoming a true craftsman is not a simple task. It takes years of consistent effort and training.


That's what becoming a professional is. It is not a name or title on a business card. Just because some finance company hired you to be a financial advisor and just because you get paid to do that and have that written on your card, that doesn't make you a professional.


Black Belts are professionals. They earned their position by hard work. It wasn't given to them.


It takes years of hard work and dedication (physical and mental) to become a Black Belt. Whatever your chosen field is, it will take you at least 10 ~20 years to become a Black Belt. Don't fool yourself into thinking that you can do that in a year or two.


Don't think that, just because you started a Facebook, Twitter or other social media accounts that you are an expert.


The journey of a thousand miles begins with one small step.

Japanese People Like Privacy So Facebook Will Always Be an Also-Ran

As I wrote long ago, I seriously doubt Facebook can surpass Mixi or Gree in Japan. The Japanese like their privacy and Facebook doesn't address these concerns nearly enough. 


I suspect that if Facebook cannot dethroned either, it will be a failure in this country.


Actually, with how much of a problem hacking and stealing identities is these days, I am amazed at just how many people in the west put up so much personal information on Facebook.

Once again, I have found a recent article that supports my beliefs about Facebook not becoming number one in Japan and how the can't do so as the cultural differences are too great.


Let's face it, Mixi and Gree were made in Japan, they completely understand the Japanese psyche. Facebook doesn't. Also, one of Facebook's biggest sales points is that it let's you connect with people overseas. That is not a big point of appeal to the Japanese. 


Bloomberg reports:

Facebook Inc. may not overtake Mixi Inc. in Japan as the lure of connecting with friends overseas isn’t enough for users to switch services, according to the U.S. social-networking site’s biggest games developer.

Japan “is one place where Facebook may not end up being dominant,” Robert Goldberg, head of Zynga Game Network Inc.’s operations in the country, said in an interview in Tokyo. 

According to Nikkeisha research, only 3% of the Japanese public can converse in English. This is a huge reason why reconnecting with people in foreign countries doesn't really appeal to the Japanese; they can't communicate.

I think it is possible that Facebook could actually be a failure in Japan much like Pepsi-cola or Universal Studios. The article continues:

Mixi is better suited for Japanese users because it gives subscribers more control over who sees their content and personal data is more secure, President Kenji Kasahara said in an interview on Dec. 15. Users can also send Twitter-like messages limited to 150 characters, a service that began in September 2009 and isn’t available on Facebook, Kasahara said at the time.

Masashi Tokuda, a Tokyo-based spokesman at Mixi, said the company’s stance hasn’t changed since Kasahara made the comments.

Shares of Mixi declined 5.6 percent to 428,500 yen as of 1:25 p.m. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, compared with a 0.7 percent gain in the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Zynga is a closely held company.

Mixi’s monthly active users, subscribers who log in at least once a month, have reached 14.5 million as of Dec. 31, the Tokyo-based company said earlier this month. That compares with Facebook’s more than 500 million users worldwide and 24.5 million for DeNA Co., Japan’s biggest developer of social games for mobile phones.

"Japan is a unique marketplace and it is necessary to take care when bringing a global product and localizing it to the Japanese culture."

Mixi and Gree allow people to use pen-names and to hide their true identities. This is important to the Japanese. 

Facebook isn't going to change 2,700 years of culture in five years. It's crazy to think that they could. Facebook doesn't protect people's privacy enough and, recently, there has been lots of junk mail and people's account's being hijacked to send junk mail out.

Like I said, they might fail here. Many big guns have in the past failed. Of the companies successful in the west that have failed in the Japanese market, the list is long; Pepsi, Universal Studio Theme Park, eBay, Vodaphone, Carrefour, Burger King and many more. The most surprising thing about this list is that, even after the failures of big players with multi-million dollar budgets, the list grows longer everyday. 

Will it include Facebook someday?

The companies who failed in Japan, failed because they couldn't comprehend just how different Japan is from the west. On the other hand, the companies who succeeded like; Disney, Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs, Yahoo and Amazon, all hired Japanese companies to handle their product/service PR for the Japanese market. 

Facebook blew it at the start in Japan by not correctly localizing their service and they also lost 2 years by not having their service ready for cell phones. This allowed Mixi and Gree to completely capture the youth market.

I think you would hard-pressed to find a high school kid in Japan who uses Facebook... I know a few college kids who do (they all speak English).

Don't even get me started on Twitter

I have a Facebook account too. I am thinking about quitting it. But I haven't. Why? I connect with many foreign musicians through Facebook. It is useful for that. Facebook is great for foreigners. But for connecting to the Japanese? No. Don't need Facebook.

I certainly do not put any personal information on my Facebook account. I don't even have my correct birth date on it. I'd recommend that you eliminate all personal information on yours too.

So, like I said, I have been serious about quitting Facebook recently. Any readers in Japan who feel the same way?


This from Eye on Miami:


HERE IS FACEBOOK'S CURRENT POLICY ON USER CONTENT...LOOK AT LAST LINE: IT BASICALLY SAYS "PERMANENT RECORD!"

"By posting User Content to any part of the Site, you automatically grant, and you represent and warrant that you have the right to grant, to the Company an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to use, copy, publicly perform, publicly display, reformat, translate, excerpt (in whole or in part) and distribute such User Content for any purpose, commercial, advertising, or otherwise, on or in connection with the Site or the promotion thereof, to prepare derivative works of, or incorporate into other works, such User Content, and to grant and authorize sublicenses of the foregoing. You may remove your User Content from the Site at any time. If you choose to remove your User Content, the license granted above will automatically expire, however you acknowledge that the Company may retain archived copies of your User Content." 

Here's a great, humorous article entitled, "Facebook Sucks" that spells out the dangers of too much information and about not being cautious on Social Media.

Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments. 

I'm a Twitter Quitter!...

This is the third time that I will write about Twitter. It is also the third time that I do not have flattering things to say about it. Twitter is quickly becoming synonymous with frustration. Twitter will never even come close to taking down Facebook.

Today, again, Twitter is down and not in service in Japan... Again. Not only is it not in service, their excuses for why it isn't working keep changing.

I wake up earlier than most people do, I think, and I go on my computer and do the things I need to do; check my e-mail; see how much money I lost that night... Write. Whenever I write my blog, I always use Social Media to promote what I have written. My favorites to use are Facebook, Mixi, Myspace, Pick and Twitter.

You know what folks? I have never once had any irritation with Pick, Mixi, or Facebook (sometimes Myspace irritates me) but Twitter frustrates me far too often. I've come to expect that there will be some sort of trouble with Twitter. I never expect any trouble, with, say Google.

That's the way the Internet is supposed to be. Twitter? Problems at least once a week. Sometimes two or three times.

Not only is Twitter frustrating because I cannot put enough text into the short space allowed but also because Twitter experiences technical trouble far too often. Today is the fourth or fifth time in the last few weeks that Twitter has not worked properly. Throw on top of that Twitter admitting that they manipulate their "Trending" and it makes you wonder "What good is it then?"

I became a bit suspicious about the last time Twitter claimed that their "Service was over-capacity" as I had noticed that Twitter kept changing the excuses as to why the system was down. One time the screen would say, "Over-capacity" the next moment it would say, "Technical error." They've done the same thing today.

How is it that one minute Twitter says that the system is "over-loaded" - meaning that "we are too popular for you," (you know, like the prom queen would actually attend your birthday party!? Harrumph! Absurd!) then, a few minutes later, the screen says something completely different? This time they say it's a problem of technical errors (I believe that!)

Which is it Twitter? Over-load or tech problem? Either way, get your story straight. Some people might think you are confused... Others, like me, might think that you are amateurish and can't get the story straight... Er, well, people like me think you are lying - to put it bluntly.

Lying on the Internet is bad business no? Or do you lie because you want some fat-cat idiot company to give you more money? Isn't that really bad business?

You already committed several cardinal sins by manipulating your "trending" topics (For proof and admission, See here) so your credibility is already questionable. But lying about your service (again!)? That is just low-grade and no class.

Check it out. Here what Twitter landing page says at this moment:

It says, "Twitter is over capacity. Please wait a moment and try again. 

For more information, see Twitter status."

Folks, it is now 7:10 am Tokyo time, I have been trying Twitter since 6:30 am and this is still going on. Poor work Twitter! And, like I said, the fourth or fifth time, at least, in the last ten weeks.

No, Twitter. You are not that popular in Japan at this moment in time and at 6:30 in the morning.

But, then again, like I also pointed out, Twitter commits the ultimate sin of lying about the problem. Twitter, you are not over-capacity. That is not true. You even admit it with the Twitter status link above.

Check it out... I want more information. So, I click "Twitter status" what do I get?

This one says, "We're currently experiencing a high error rate on Twitter. Our infrastructure and operations engineers are responding to the incident."

Heck, Twitter, that's poor. I remember about a year ago when Google was having trouble with their G-mail. Sometimes it wouldn't work correctly for, oh, say sometimes ten minutes and then they had it up and fixed immediately....

You guys? Well, it's now almost an hour (at least one hour)...

This really sucks Twitter. No wonder 60% of all Twitter users quit using Twitter within the first 30 days. twitter can be incredibly boring and the service is poor.

I can honestly say that I have just about had it with you guys too. The way this is going, Twitter, while maybe not dead, will be just like Myspace or something that a few people use for a storage garage to keep their junk... I really predict Twitter will be a real dog by 2014.

As for me, just sign me, Twitter Quitter!

Twitter Sucks.

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Mike Rogers, Marketing Japan, Mixi, Facebook, Mike in Tokyo Rogers, Twitter, Google, G-mail, Twitter over-capapcity, Twitter high error rate, Pick, Twitter Quitter, Social Media, Japan, Myspace 

Marketing Japan: Get a Professional Looking Logo for $200 (USD)

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers


People who read this blog often (thank you) will know that I am a member of many online communities. I do that because it is a good place to see what people are writing about SNS, Social Media, and Social Media Marketing (SMM). It is also a good place to see what the old school people are doing to try to make themselves look as if they are up on the Internet and the new media.

Guess how much this logo cost? A total of $200 (USD) Incredible? Read on.

It is pretty easy to pick the people out who are still stuck in the old ways at these "Marketing Online Professionals" communities. They write things like,

For this reason , I am convinced that SM works ONLY when being integrated inside a marketing plan, together with media placement, PR, promo, direct marketing and CRM. 

It is painfully obvious that the guy who wrote this is an old-school advertising guy posing as an "Internet and Social Media" expert. He laments the fact that his Social Media Marketing (SMM) plans fail consistently. He is trying to convince us - but more likely he is trying to convince himself - that the old way is vital.

In some ways he's right. The old media is vital if my product is targeted to to the 45 ~ 70-year-old crowd or if my product or service is for everyone in the family from the smallest kids to grandpa and grandma (think Disneyland, etc.) But when your product /service is for the under 40 crowd, I think you'd have to consider long and hard about spending a cent on old media... In many cases you would not be doing your client any favors to recommend spending huge budgets on TV or radio. I wrote about that in detail here and here.

Earlier today, I went to a different online professionals community and was so surprised to find people saying things like "First things, first! You must hire a professional to do your company logo!"

Of course a good logo is a must... But coughing up a few thousand dollars to hire a professional? And this advice coming from a community that calls itself, "Online Professionals"? Hmmm... Why would the people who are supposedly sold on online business be pushing the old-school ways?

Perhaps hiring a big-bucks professional will be necessary down the line, but I think us Internet types should try to use our creativity and brains before we just throw money at the problem like people used to do....

As I suspected many times, these online communities are often places where old-school advertising agents try to gain credibility as "Internet" and "online experts"... But they actually don't really do either (always ask any self-proclaimed "Internet" and "Social Media Marketer" for a list of their blog URL's and Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, U-Stream, Mixi (in Japan), etc, accounts. That's an easy way to pick out the frauds).

Click here and read at bottom for tips on how to pick out the poseurs.

I know many a small to medium business owner who has hired a professional and spent a few thousand dollars only to wind up with a handful of designs and they didn't like any of them. Foolish especially considering the fact that new businesses must watch out for every single penny and paper clip!

Well, now my friends, there is a solution! It is a company called Logomyway.

Logomyway is a new service that started in April 2009. At Logomyway you make a logo design contest and get 1,000's of artists to compete for your business... You pay nothing excepting to the winning submission. The cost can be as low as $200 (USD). You decide the winner's prize fee.

My company, "Universal Vision" logo... $200! Excellent!

Hiring a professional designer right off the bat is old school. It is also the easy way to do things for salaried employees who have no problem spending the company money... They wouldn't recommend this is it were out of their pocket. The people people who were so quick to recommend throwing away $1,000 ~ $2,000 were from an online professionals group! I'm surprised that anyone would suggest the old way without investigating the new and exciting things going on online. Try Logomyway.

http://www.logomyway.com/

I have no investment nor business relationship with Logomyway whatsoever but have used it twice  and recommended to three other people who have used it. Everyone has been more than thrilled with the results... One friend was so happy because the professional that he had hired before - and paid well - gave him designs that weren't that good... He was worried that he was going to be out another $1,000 when I introduced him to Logomyway... The result? He spent $200 and got a killer logo.

And, if you don't like any of the logos... You don't pay!

All hail the Internet!!!!

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Keywords:
Logo, Logomyway, SNS, Social Media, SMM, old media, Japan, Mixi, Internet, Facebook, Twitter, blog, online professionals, Marketing Online Professionals, YouTube, Online Marketing, Universal Vision, Mike Rogers, Marketing Japan, U-Stream, Mike in Tokyo Rogers, 

Why the Digital Conversion Will Destroy TV Tokyo and TBS

Yesterday I wrote about why the conversion in Japan by television stations from analogue to digital is going to wipe out a bunch of FM radio stations. Today I will write about why this will also kill off some of the poorly rated TV stations too (good riddance!).

July 24, 2011. One year from the writing of this article

The digital conversion that is scheduled to occur on July 24, 2011, is going to kill off a bunch of FM radio stations in this country (especially Tokyo) because you will no longer be able to hear FM radio in your Toyota or Nissan without special equipment. The digital sets are not compatible with analogue.

Also, the economic consideration that analogue equipment is not manufactured in Japan anymore plays a big part. It may not be so much a matter of what the consumer wants, but what the manufacturer wants.

From that blog:

After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS, Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions. All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the next generation of car entertainment system. 

Read that entire blog here.

Today's blog will show you why I think this digital conversion is going to kill off TV stations like TV Tokyo and TBS who are consistently last in ratings.

It is important that you good folks have an understanding of the Long Tail to fully grasp this. For a brief explanation of what the Long Tail is, read here and here.

When the digital conversion happens in July of 2011, suddenly there is going to be massive choice on your television. The playing field will be evened quite a bit. Instead of being able to receive just 4 ~ 6 channels like today's analogue TV does, your system will be able to receive hundreds of TV channels.

Now, what happens to people when they are given a choice? Do they stick with watching the same 4 channels, or do they TV zap and try many channels?

History shows us that when people are offered a choice, they will let their own personal tastes dictate what they decide to consume whether we are talking about TV programs, restaurants, clothes, or even  jams and jellies for toast.

Let's use jam and jelly for our example.

Go to any convenience store where shelf space is limited. How many jams and jellies do they offer? 4? 5? Go to any grocery store. How many jams and jellies do they offer? 18? 20? Go to Amazon.com, how many jams and jellies do they offer? Over 1,300.

Now it makes sense that if Joe-blow is buying the lemon-tangerine marmalade made in Holland, that is one less purchase of the generic brand "STRAWBERRY JAM" that he is going to make, right?

Get it? Having more choice doesn't mean that people will buy more jam; it means that people will diversify their tastes. The more people are offered, the more wide-spread their choice becomes, the more dispersed their spending will be. More choices will result in a displacement of time and money from the old choices that were dictated simply due to lack of choice (caused by limitations due to time, money and space).

When people have wide choices they will exercise more discretion 

and more personal taste and freedom of choice

It is the same with TV.

When there are 300 TV channels competing for your attention and sponsor's money - both of these critical factors to the survival of TV (audience and money) will be more widely dispersed.

Think of it this way: You are the maker of, say, outdoor goods like tents, bicycles and barbeques. Say, the price for 25 TV ads on a TV station like TV Tokyo is about $150,000 (USD). The price of 35 TV ads on the sports channel is $14,000. Sure there are more viewers on TV Tokyo, but Sports TV offers a targeted audience of men who like sports (and, by the way, many are probably are married, have families, and like the outdoors).... TV Tokyo's audience ranges from 10-year-olds to 80-year-olds; Sports TV target audience is mainly 30 ~ 50-year-old men.

Now, where would you spend the money if you were the sponsor?

It is obvious that you would go for the Sports TV. It will be the same for all manufacturers whether they make diapers or women's fashion brand shoes. The diaspora of audience will make targeting even more important as time goes by.

But there will still be a place for the catch-all, wide audience accepted platform to advertise hit products; say the new Hollywood Blockbuster or the new Disney Park attraction that appeals to the entire family. Those will still be handled by the old style TV stations. The old style TV station thats target a wide audience will be amply served by today's #1 rated (by far) TV stations: Fuji TV and Nihon TV (at #2)... The stations like TV Tokyo and TBS, who fight it out for last place, will find it more and more difficult to find buyers for their ad space and are headed for very tough times and difficult decisions.

Sports TV can sell TV ads for 1/10th the price of TV Tokyo because they only have about 60 employees... TV Tokyo has over 700! TV Tokyo group has over 1,000!

Guess what? When the playing field is evened, then everyone will have to tighten their belts, but guess who is going to have to fire 50 ~ 70% of their employees and probably merge with another company? TBS and TV Tokyo.

While today, the stations like TV Tokyo and TBS are all crowing about their new digital channel... The content is still the same. Only the broadcasting platform has changed. What makes them think that just by changing platforms that their ratings and income are going to increase? Good question. If anything, their viewership is going to decline due to more choices being offered and some people opting out of buying an expensive new TV (at my home, we opted out of TV over seven years ago and haven't missed it once. I wrote about not having a TV and the benefits of that here and here.)

Today, TV Tokyo's ratings are dead last and they are losing millions of dollars a year and having to borrow massive amounts of money from banks to stay afloat. How long will banks keep lending them money? (Their FM radio subsidiary, InterFM alone is losing somewhere in the neighborhood of one million dollars a year!) What makes TV Tokyo management think that, when digital goes online, and the competition increases one-hundred fold, that their fortunes will get better?

Fuji TV consistently #1 in ratings by far.  

Strong on branding and image and logo is the same each and every time.

I think that they are in for a quite rude awakening, in spite of their current bravado and high hopes that digital is going to save them from their current conundrum... (I've mentioned before that "hope" is a very poor business plan).

I also think that their poorly designed Digital 7 TV logo is a sign of things to come for them. Of course my opinion here is very subjective but I think this logo looks old-fashioned, cheaply designed and not "cool" at all. It looks old-fashioned but not "retro" and looks like a design that wasn't made by a world-class professional. Like I said, it looks very poorly thought out and very cheap. Also, in typical TV Tokyo fashion, every time you see it it is a bit different.... Why don't these guys take classes in Marketing and Branding 101?

This is TV Tokyo's Digital Logo. 

Sorry, guys but this looks really cheap. 

How about some shadows or gradation? 

Why don't you hire a professional designer?

Let me get cute here and say that, I think, in this case, "7", for TV Tokyo is not lucky. In this case, 7 is their second number (on analogue they were channel 12) and if you've ever played Craps, you know that 7 on your second number means, "Loser."

This is why I say that the times they are a changin'... Look for no TV Tokyo and no TBS TV by 2015!

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Keywords:

Social Media, FM radio, FM, blogs, Yahoo, U-Stream, AM radio, Nissan, Tokyo, Pick, Twitter, Toyota, TV, YouTube, AM, blog,  Internet, Japan, digital TV, digital radio, Japan, TV Tokyo, TBS TV, 

One More Phase in the Shattering of Mainstream Media

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

I rode the Tokyo subway today and saw a sign inside the car that notified the passengers that as of July 24, 2011, terrestrial television stations will no longer broadcast analogue signals in Japan and will finally make the switch to digital.

This signals the final nail in the coffin of many of the FM radio stations in this country and the collapse of TV Tokyo and TBS.

I predict that InterFM will either be bankrupt or sold to a new owner by 2014 and TV Tokyo will be in the same situation: insolvent or absorbed by another company by 2016.

I'd like to explain why in this post but first let me give you some important details involving the background of broadcast signals so that you may have a better understanding and why I think this way. Let's see if you come to the same conclusions that I have.

Let's start with AM and FM radio.

AM is called "Amplitude Modulation" and its signal is wavy. When an AM signal comes to an obstacle like a mountain or a tall building, it bounces off of it in many directions and continues going. This is why, in many areas of the United States, there are some AM stations whose broadcasts can be heard over 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) away. The AM signal is like an ocean wave so, if there are no mountains to make the signal deflect into the heavens, the signals will bounce along the earth's surface.

This makes AM radio great for talk and the friend of people who drive long-distance trucks.

FM is called "Frequency Modulation" and it goes in a straight line. When an FM signal hits a mountain, tall building or other obstacle, it stops. We've all had the experience that our favorite FM station drops off when we go through a tunnel or through a valley. That's the shortcoming of FM radio.

What many people do not know is that terrestrial TV uses the same FM frequency for its broadcasts too.

People who were brought up in Japan may remember from their childhood small portable transistor radio that had the AM / FM band on them but also played TV channels NHK and NHK Educational (1 & 3).  If you understand that analogue TV uses FM frequency to broadcast, then you now understand why those old transistor radio's had TV channels on them.

This is important so keep this in mind.

On July 24, 2011, the TV channels will stop broadcasting analogue signals. What this really means is that they will stop using the FM band for transmitting their services and go to terrestrial digital.

FM, Frequency Modulation, is a broadcast wave. Digital broadcasting is not a wave at all. Digital broadcasting is a completely different technology. Digital broadcasting is not a wave, it is binary data.

I suppose that some of you have seen binary data before. It's a series of zero's and one's and looks something like this:

00110010111100101101001110100010000100001000001

00110001000011101110001010101001001000100111000

01011110111101111011011111110010001000001101010

That is binary data. The reason why digital broadcasting is so clear and high quality is that, with binary data, it is either "on" or "off" unlike an AM or FM signal that can be blocked or deflected by tall buildings, mountains or even trees. Binary Data is crystal clear.

Now, how does this spell the end of FM radio? Bear with me here, cause now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

The future of FM radio doesn't lay in what they broadcast or how they up the ante of quality of content (but, of course, it will always be a competition between stations for dwindling audience and sponsorship dollars)...

The future of FM radio depends on what Toyota does.

That's right. Toyota is the one who decides what is going to happen. In my opinion, it is obvious that FM  is is serious trouble and that we are now witnessing the end of an era; and it's happening, in slow motion, right in front of our eyes.

But, don't take my word for it, decide for yourself. Let me explain further...

Think about this: Where do most people listen to FM radio? In cars, right?

The Japanese government and all the big manufacturers in this country, Sony, Panasonic, etc. (who, by the way, all have an incestuous relationship with each other and Toyota in stock holdings) are pushing for the digital conversion big time. These manufacturers need their flagging fortunes to get an injection of sales and profits that new broadcasting and new equipment will generate. Digital equipment costs anywhere from $500 - $2,000 (USD) a set. The Japanese manufacturers want and need for the Japanese public to go whole-hog into digital broadcasting. They need the public to dispose of their analogue equipment and buy the new digital equipment... (By the way, a cursory check of analogue equipment at Bic Camera the other day - what little I could find - showed that all the analogue products were all manufactured outside of Japan).

If digital broadcasting is a failure in this country, then it's going to hurt Japanese manufacturing for a very long time... The analogue equipment I saw was all manufactured in Malaysia, Indonesia, and I found some from Taiwan (which was surprising).

Now, how does Toyota fit into this equation?

Imagine your car dashboard. It has a GPS, CD player, and television/radio set all built together. Most people have an analogue device (with terrible TV reception!) From July 2011 there will be no cars that come with that device. They will all be digital.

After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS, Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions. All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the next generation of car entertainment system. (In Japan, as of now, there are 6 digital radio channels that are shown on CS or BS television. These channels broadcast soft jazz and classical music).

Toyota HD Digital Screen. 

All sorts of fun things like iPod, digital TV and digital radio... 

Do you see FM or AM radio? I don't

Remember I wrote that digital signals are binary data and analogue is a broadcasting wave? This is important now.

I ask you, dear reader, to consider; Since Sony, Panasonic, etc. and companies like Toyota and Nissan all have an incestuous relationship as to stock holdings and company ownership, and they desperately need to have the Japanese public buy their digital devices that cost at least $500 each... And digital devices receive binary data and are not analogue compatible... Do you think that Toyota will cut a hole in your dashboard, just under your $500 digital GPS, TV, Internet, radio device in order to install a $1 dollar made in Indonesia FM tuner?

I don't, and I think it is insane to think otherwise. Actually, the notion is laughable, isn't it?

So, if people can no longer hear FM radio in their cars, then where are they going to listen to it? In the subways with their white earplugs through their iPods and iPhones?... Get serious. Nobody does that now!

If there are any folks reading this who remember how popular short wave was way back when compared to what it is today, then they have a good idea what I think the future of FM radio in Japan looks like....

No FM radio in the car spells doom for the FM stations because if no one can listen in their car, then FM will have no listeners at all... No listeners means no sponsors. No sponsors means no money. No money means no FM...

I cannot imagine how they will survive the next 5 ~ 10 years.

If I were a station like J-Wave - that still has good ratings and high listenership - I'd get into negotiations real soon for an open digital radio channel... And, no, the license and digital conversion are not cheap. We're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. The smaller stations will never afford it, so they are dead.

And that's why July 2011 is the last nail in the coffin of FM radio in Japan.

But what about AM radio you say? Ah, that's the interesting contradiction. AM radio will probably survive. Because AM car radio is the bottom of the pit for basic car equipment (besides nothing at all)... Almost every Tokyo Taxi has an AM radio in it. Few have FM radios.

Tomorrow I will explain why this entire situation bodes ill for TV Tokyo and TBS TV.

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