Terrestrial TV Stations Getting Cold Feet?

All the major TV stations in Japan were supposed to stop broadcasting in analogue on July 24, 2011. There was one piece of information that wasn't made public until now, and that is that the Japanese government wanted the TV stations to stop broadcasting regular programming on June 30, 2011.

The government plan called for the TV stations to air only a notice that TV sets that cannot pick up Digital would only receive "snow."

As Yomiuri reports:

Commercial TV stations are likely to continue analog TV broadcasts until noon on July 24, deviating from a government plan to phase in terrestrial digital broadcasts and end regular analog service by the end of June, sources said.

This means the TV stations will not participate in a planned June 30 to July 24 transition period during which the government hopes analog broadcasts will be reduced only to a notice saying terrestrial TV broadcasting will go exclusively digital at noon on July 24.

After the changeover is complete, TV sets incapable of digital reception will display only "snow" on their screens. TV stations plan to start broadcasting an image of a snow-filled screen repeatedly in announcements to begin as early as this month to avoid confusion among TV viewers after the full transition.

The government is so unorganized that it is not even funny. Here we are 7 months from D-Day for these foolish TV stations that agreed to go into huge debt to go digital and the government - as is par for the course - hasn't got their ducks in order.

Hell, they stopped giving people so-called eco-point discounts on these digital ready TV sets already! (Now, don't get me wrong, I think these eco-points discounts, are a sham and the government has no business offering people discounts for products on the free market...) But if they are going to do it anyway, you'd think they would continue to allow credits to people to buy a digital set for at least a year after conversion... But no!

The government can't fill in a pothole in the road on time and on budget; who thinks they can control and run an entire country switchover to digital smoothly?

Let me make a prediction right here. When the stations stop broadcasting in analogue, they will lose viewers in huge numbers and they will receive a massive amount of complaints. This will affect their sales. I predict that the government and the broadcasters will start to quarrel and, before April 2012, some of the TV stations will request that they be allowed to broadcast in analogue also.

This will cause even more confusion and complaints amongst the people, manufacturers, broadcasters and the government. And that will, in turn, make TV an ever more undesirable method of advertising. This will also hurt TV viewership ratings.

The Japanese government will realize that they made a mistake by making digital broadcasting mandatory and then they will try all sorts of "fix-it" remedies - all of which will fail.

These sorts of events will help lead to TV Tokyo and TBS's bankruptcy by 2015.

Part 2: Why the Digital TV Conversion Will Kill TV Tokyo & TBS ...

Analogue TV will end broadcasting in Japan on July 24, 2011. I have written before that this will signal the end - and quick collapse - of TV Tokyo and TBS TV in their current configuration here in Japan. This is part two of why I firmly believe that TV Tokyo and TBS won't survive, in their current form, past 2015 and my proof for believing so.

On the surface, the reason that TBS TV and TV Tokyo won't long survive a digital conversion is that they are last in ratings even now. Sometimes, TV Tokyo gets a mere 1% of total TV viewers. That's terrible for a city like Tokyo that has 35 million households and only 5 terrestrial private TV stations.

They certainly will get even lower ratings when there are, not just 4 other private TV stations competing with them, but over 300 stations competing with them. I wrote about that in a previous blog:

...the stations like TV Tokyo and TBS are all crowing about their new digital channel... The content is still the same. Only the broadcasting platform has changed. What makes them think that just by changing platforms that their ratings and income are going to increase? Good question. If anything, their viewership is going to decline due to more choices being offered and some people opting out of buying an expensive new TV (at my home, we opted out of TV over seven years ago and haven't missed it once. I wrote about not having a TV and the benefits of that here and here.)

Today, TV Tokyo's ratings are dead last and they are losing millions of dollars a year and having to borrow massive amounts of money from banks to stay afloat. How long will banks keep lending them money?


...What makes TV Tokyo management think that, when digital goes online, and the competition increases one-hundred fold, that their fortunes will get better? 

Once the digital conversion happens, I estimate that TV Tokyo and TBS TV will lose at least another 30% of their audience. I also believe that my figures are conservative. Read on and I'll show you how I come to that conclusion using existing government, NHK and private company statistics as evidence.

From the Japan Times (July 30, 2010):

According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications last March, 83.3 percent of Japanese households now receive digital TV signals. However, an NHK survey carried out two months earlier found this number to be only 63.7 percent, and a private research company quoted in the Yomiuri Shimbun said it was “less than 70 percent.”


Get that? The government says, "83.7 percent" of all households receive digital TV signals; NHK (a branch of the government) says "63.7 percent" and Yomiuri Shimbun says "less than 70%"! There's a huge difference between 63% and 84%. Something has got to give here.

I think this government figure of 83.7% is pure and complete nonsense. I think the private research is probably the closest to the truth but still exaggerrated...

In Japanese, this is called the "Minami Kanto Mondai" (Southern Kanto area problem). The Southern Kanto area problem is due to a very low percentage of homes having digital equipment (due to being  very low income and not being able to afford luxuries like digital tuners).

Besides the above consideration, in recent reports, it has become common knowledge around the world that Japan has a serious economic problem and that more than 15% of the people live below the poverty line. This is another critical factor in considering what is going to happen once the digital conversion is complete.  As the NY Times reported:

Many Japanese, who cling to the popular myth that their nation is uniformly middle class, were further shocked to see that Japan’s poverty rate, at 15.7 percent 

Just with that information, you know the government statistics are complete and totally cocked. People who are out struggling to make ends meet everyday are not out buying digital equipment that costs thousands of dollars a set. If 15.7 percent of the people are at "poverty line" then that means that, if you believe the government stats, then nearly every single person in Japan who is not on the poverty line has a digital tuner!?

What a load of rubbish!

In my own "Mike in Tokyo Rogers" informal survey, I registered 6 homes out of 10 that have satellite - I went around and knocked on doors and asked - and I took my survey in an upper-class neighborhood. If I include the one 10 unit apartment building that only has 2 satellite dishes, then we have 8 homes out of 20 (40%).

Consider these figures with the fact that more than 50% of the Japanese population lives in apartments - that do not normally have satellite TV (and are TBS and TV Tokyo's core bread and butter audience) - you can see where TV Tokyo and TBS are about to shut the spigot on possibly half their viewers.

Don't forget the fact that upper-middle class income families have been demonstrated to watch less TV per person, per week, than their middle-class income family counter-parts and you have TBS and TV Tokyo setting themselves up for a serious crash.

Oh, yes, I think TBS and TV Tokyo are in for a big surprise in their annual report to shareholders in mid 2012. I think current management are going to be out of jobs very soon.

Once you understand the above, you can see how - using simple math - TV Tokyo and TBS will lose at least 30% of their current audience from July 2011! They are losing money now. What are they going to do when 30% of their viewers disappear?

This 30% drop figure also has nothing to do with an increase in competition from other TV stations. It has to do completely with the fact that, in spite of the government spin, most likely, less than 80% of all Japanese households have digital equipment! In fact, the real numbers are far worse.

Depending on who you believe, I'd estimate that at the most, only 60% of the Japanese public has digital equipment. Go to any middle or lower class neighborhood that has huge apartments or "Danchi" and consider that fact that these dwellings do not have satellite TV!

A danchi in Aizuwakamatsu, Fukushima

You can count that only 4 of 24 apartments have digital TV. That's only 16%

Even if it were an 80% penetration... TV Tokyo's ratings are last today. What's going to happen when they voluntarily throw away at least 20% ~ 30% of their audience?

You might be saying now, "Those fools!" (there are more than a few of us who have been saying this for a few years) but it is too late. There's no turning back now. They've sold the farm on this digital bet. They've borrowed more money than they could ever pay back (sound familiar?).

The Japan Times reports:

NHK and the commercial stations have together spent ¥1.5 trillion to convert to digital, and the nation has contributed another ¥200 billion to the project. 

$1.5 trillion yen is about $17,000,000,000.00 (17 billion dollars!) NHK can get away with this because they are a blood-sucking parasitical publicly owned broadcasting station; no matter what happens to them, the tax payer will be forced to bail them out... But the private stations? Ha! Good luck with that!

With the economy in the doldrums and no relief on the horizon, people are not about to fork out several hundred dollars for digital equipment.

Why would they? Why would anyone think that they will? The digital equipment has already been available for years already in Japan and, still, to this very day, some surveys show that less than 70% of all households have digital equipment. Everyone has known for at least 10 years that the best TV is on digital, yet they didn't buy the equipment.

Why didn't people buy the equipment before? I figure it's because of one of six reasons (or maybe a bit of all six):

1) TV sucks, er, I mean, TV is boring

2) Digital equipment is too expensive for TV (see #1)

3) The Internet is much more interesting

4) DVD rental and things like Youtube are killing TV (and are much cheaper and more satisfying)

5) Young people want to play computer games and Internet and have no time for TV

6) Cell phones are more fun and personal for youth

It seems obvious to me that there's no doubt about it...  Basically:

1) People with money do not watch TV
2) The only people who do watch a lot of TV have either no money or too much time on their hands; they are not active
3) Advertising to people with no money and who are not active is a waste of money.
4) When digital goes online fully, then the only people who don't have the digital equipment are poor people
5) Poor people are the only ones who watch TV Tokyo and TBS now (see #2 above)

The countdown has begun. The digital TV conversion will kill TV Tokyo and TBS.

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Keywords: TV Tokyo, TBS, Mike Rogers, Marketing Japan, Digital, digital conversion, NHK, Yomiuri, analogue, Mike in Tokyo Rogers

One More Phase in the Shattering of Mainstream Media

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

I rode the Tokyo subway today and saw a sign inside the car that notified the passengers that as of July 24, 2011, terrestrial television stations will no longer broadcast analogue signals in Japan and will finally make the switch to digital.

This signals the final nail in the coffin of many of the FM radio stations in this country and the collapse of TV Tokyo and TBS.

I predict that InterFM will either be bankrupt or sold to a new owner by 2014 and TV Tokyo will be in the same situation: insolvent or absorbed by another company by 2016.

I'd like to explain why in this post but first let me give you some important details involving the background of broadcast signals so that you may have a better understanding and why I think this way. Let's see if you come to the same conclusions that I have.

Let's start with AM and FM radio.

AM is called "Amplitude Modulation" and its signal is wavy. When an AM signal comes to an obstacle like a mountain or a tall building, it bounces off of it in many directions and continues going. This is why, in many areas of the United States, there are some AM stations whose broadcasts can be heard over 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) away. The AM signal is like an ocean wave so, if there are no mountains to make the signal deflect into the heavens, the signals will bounce along the earth's surface.

This makes AM radio great for talk and the friend of people who drive long-distance trucks.

FM is called "Frequency Modulation" and it goes in a straight line. When an FM signal hits a mountain, tall building or other obstacle, it stops. We've all had the experience that our favorite FM station drops off when we go through a tunnel or through a valley. That's the shortcoming of FM radio.

What many people do not know is that terrestrial TV uses the same FM frequency for its broadcasts too.

People who were brought up in Japan may remember from their childhood small portable transistor radio that had the AM / FM band on them but also played TV channels NHK and NHK Educational (1 & 3).  If you understand that analogue TV uses FM frequency to broadcast, then you now understand why those old transistor radio's had TV channels on them.

This is important so keep this in mind.

On July 24, 2011, the TV channels will stop broadcasting analogue signals. What this really means is that they will stop using the FM band for transmitting their services and go to terrestrial digital.

FM, Frequency Modulation, is a broadcast wave. Digital broadcasting is not a wave at all. Digital broadcasting is a completely different technology. Digital broadcasting is not a wave, it is binary data.

I suppose that some of you have seen binary data before. It's a series of zero's and one's and looks something like this:

00110010111100101101001110100010000100001000001

00110001000011101110001010101001001000100111000

01011110111101111011011111110010001000001101010

That is binary data. The reason why digital broadcasting is so clear and high quality is that, with binary data, it is either "on" or "off" unlike an AM or FM signal that can be blocked or deflected by tall buildings, mountains or even trees. Binary Data is crystal clear.

Now, how does this spell the end of FM radio? Bear with me here, cause now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

The future of FM radio doesn't lay in what they broadcast or how they up the ante of quality of content (but, of course, it will always be a competition between stations for dwindling audience and sponsorship dollars)...

The future of FM radio depends on what Toyota does.

That's right. Toyota is the one who decides what is going to happen. In my opinion, it is obvious that FM  is is serious trouble and that we are now witnessing the end of an era; and it's happening, in slow motion, right in front of our eyes.

But, don't take my word for it, decide for yourself. Let me explain further...

Think about this: Where do most people listen to FM radio? In cars, right?

The Japanese government and all the big manufacturers in this country, Sony, Panasonic, etc. (who, by the way, all have an incestuous relationship with each other and Toyota in stock holdings) are pushing for the digital conversion big time. These manufacturers need their flagging fortunes to get an injection of sales and profits that new broadcasting and new equipment will generate. Digital equipment costs anywhere from $500 - $2,000 (USD) a set. The Japanese manufacturers want and need for the Japanese public to go whole-hog into digital broadcasting. They need the public to dispose of their analogue equipment and buy the new digital equipment... (By the way, a cursory check of analogue equipment at Bic Camera the other day - what little I could find - showed that all the analogue products were all manufactured outside of Japan).

If digital broadcasting is a failure in this country, then it's going to hurt Japanese manufacturing for a very long time... The analogue equipment I saw was all manufactured in Malaysia, Indonesia, and I found some from Taiwan (which was surprising).

Now, how does Toyota fit into this equation?

Imagine your car dashboard. It has a GPS, CD player, and television/radio set all built together. Most people have an analogue device (with terrible TV reception!) From July 2011 there will be no cars that come with that device. They will all be digital.

After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS, Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions. All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the next generation of car entertainment system. (In Japan, as of now, there are 6 digital radio channels that are shown on CS or BS television. These channels broadcast soft jazz and classical music).

Toyota HD Digital Screen. 

All sorts of fun things like iPod, digital TV and digital radio... 

Do you see FM or AM radio? I don't

Remember I wrote that digital signals are binary data and analogue is a broadcasting wave? This is important now.

I ask you, dear reader, to consider; Since Sony, Panasonic, etc. and companies like Toyota and Nissan all have an incestuous relationship as to stock holdings and company ownership, and they desperately need to have the Japanese public buy their digital devices that cost at least $500 each... And digital devices receive binary data and are not analogue compatible... Do you think that Toyota will cut a hole in your dashboard, just under your $500 digital GPS, TV, Internet, radio device in order to install a $1 dollar made in Indonesia FM tuner?

I don't, and I think it is insane to think otherwise. Actually, the notion is laughable, isn't it?

So, if people can no longer hear FM radio in their cars, then where are they going to listen to it? In the subways with their white earplugs through their iPods and iPhones?... Get serious. Nobody does that now!

If there are any folks reading this who remember how popular short wave was way back when compared to what it is today, then they have a good idea what I think the future of FM radio in Japan looks like....

No FM radio in the car spells doom for the FM stations because if no one can listen in their car, then FM will have no listeners at all... No listeners means no sponsors. No sponsors means no money. No money means no FM...

I cannot imagine how they will survive the next 5 ~ 10 years.

If I were a station like J-Wave - that still has good ratings and high listenership - I'd get into negotiations real soon for an open digital radio channel... And, no, the license and digital conversion are not cheap. We're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. The smaller stations will never afford it, so they are dead.

And that's why July 2011 is the last nail in the coffin of FM radio in Japan.

But what about AM radio you say? Ah, that's the interesting contradiction. AM radio will probably survive. Because AM car radio is the bottom of the pit for basic car equipment (besides nothing at all)... Almost every Tokyo Taxi has an AM radio in it. Few have FM radios.

Tomorrow I will explain why this entire situation bodes ill for TV Tokyo and TBS TV.

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Keywords:
Nissan, Tokyo, Pick, Twitter, FM, Toyota, FM radio, Yahoo, U-Stream, J-Wave, Social Media, TV, YouTube, AM, AM radio, blog, blogs, Internet, Japan, digital TV, Panasonic, digital radio, Japan, TV Tokyo, TBS TV, iPod, iPhone, Sony, Google, Tokyo subway