George Williams on Cover of Bicycle Navi

IT'S BEEN A ROUGH WEEK BATTLING IT OUT WITH MASS MEDIA SENSATIONALISTS AND TWITS WHO FOLLOW THE PARTY LINE. F*CK THEM. I'M TIRED AND NEED A BREAK. MY DAD HAD A HEART ATTACK AND I'M NOW CHECKING IT OUT. PLEASE FORGIVE MY SPORADIC POSTINGS AS I'M IN A PLACE THAT HAS NOT INTERNET... IT'S LIKE A FLINTSTONES MOVIE HERE...

Well known Japanese TV and radio star George Williams is on the cover of Japan's best known bicycling magazine, Bicycle Navi, for the month of May, 2011. Congrats George!

You can see George Williams own multi-media webpage here and his bio and contact information here. http://universal-vision.jp/wp/?page_id=52

Write to: info@universal-vision.jp

Japanese Government Preparing for Broadcasting Companies' Bankruptcy

Last year, in 2010, for the first time in the history of this country, two major broadcasting stations were allowed to go bankrupt. Those stations were Radio-I in Nagoya and Love FM in Fukuoka. Those two events shook the Japanese broadcasting industry to its bones as the old school broadcasters have always thought that no matter what happened, the government would bail out the stations.

SELECTER - ON MY RADIO

"It's just the same old show... On my radio..."

There have been times in the past when stations got themselves into serious financial troubles, but, when push came to shove, either the Japanese government bailed the stations out or they guaranteed loans for the stations or arranged a group of companies to cooperate to buyout or support the station.

With the current poor economic situation and the Japanese government in debt over 200% of GDP, the well has run dry. There are no more funds to bail out these businesses.


This is actually the way things should be. The government should not be bailing out insolvent businesses as that just causes distortions in the market and causes management to continue with their incompetent practices.


A bankruptcy allows for the bad management to be washed out and replaced with new management. Bailing out a business (in this case a broadcasting station) or arranging loans, etc. allows bad management to continue in their positions and creates a false security for them. This creates a situation whereby the stations continue in their old and tired ways of failure.


I can give you a shocking example of this. In 2006, when a major Tokyo TV station took over a FM station, I was at a meeting where the guy who had been Program Director at that FM radio station for over ten years (ten years and lost $140 million USD) actually said to the TV station president - who had no become the president of the radio station;


"We don't have to get good ratings or make money as, even if we lose money, some other company will come in - with government support - and bail out the station and we'll all get to keep our jobs as we can't be fired under the labor laws (of Japan). So there's no reason to make any money." 


He said this like an excited boy who wanted his new friend in on his "secret." Both the new president of the radio station and I were surprised. No, surprised isn't the word I'm looking for here. I think my jaw dropped and bounced on the table top. It was a shocking admission.

If the kids want to hear new, cool music in Japan, 

it's not on the radio. They have to read magazines! 

The new president was also dumbfounded to hear this sort of thinking direct from the horse's mouth from a person in management. I had worked with this guy and that station for years and knew that they were incompetent and not interested in making money or getting good ratings. But I was completely surprised that he was so foolish that he'd so readily volunteer such information - so innocently - as if it were common sense - and as if it were useful knowledge. Did this Program Director actually think that the new president had bought this radio station for his fun and not to make money?


Of course, it goes without saying, that this Program Director was removed from his position quite soon after that.    


It had always struck me as amazing how someone like that could keep their job in the decade or so that I knew this gentleman. He was a nice guy, for sure. But a completely and totally clueless and incompetent businessman. 


As an aside, for those of you who live in Japan and have always wondered why, say, Japanese FM radio is so bad, then there's your answer: The management of these stations all think like the Program Director above; there's no reason to worry about your station brand, ratings, sales or making good programs. The station management only have to worry about protecting their own personal positions. This is how the situation is on the ground in these broadcasting stations. This is the reality for these people.


That's why, in a nutshell, Japanese TV and radio are so bad. It is also just one more symptom of why several of these stations will not survive the digital conversion. I've written about that here, here and here.

Now, if you read between the lines of the latest headlines, you can see that the Japanese Government is setting up the system for a collapse of radio stations.


The Associated Press reports: 


The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said Friday it plans to allow one company to own up to four radio stations by relaxing its ordinance on the principle of banning multiple ownership of mass media.


The amendment is designed to permit a company to hold an entire equity stake in each of four radio stations, whether they are AM or FM stations.

The current ministry ordinance bans a company, which has a 10 percent or larger stake in a radio station, from holding more than 10 percent of shares in another station in the same service area.

On a nationwide basis, a company is allowed to hold a stake of more than 20 percent in no more than two stations.

The ministry decided to relax the principle in order to help radio stations as the widespread use of the Internet has caused many of them financial difficulties by eating into their advertising revenues.

The drafted amendment, which would also allow radio stations to merge with each other, is expected to be put into effect in late June after being examined by an advisory panel to the communications minister.


The Japanese government recognizes the writing on the wall. Most of these stations under the current system are insolvent and cannot survive much longer. The economy is so bad - and the Internet has changed the game so much - that industries outside of broadcasting (the ones that the government traditionally went to for money) are no longer able to afford it, nor are they interested in broadcasting anymore.


Traditional broadcasting is a dinosaur. All the FM radio stations in Japan are seriously bleeding money even now - even J-Wave in Tokyo. When digital broadcasting starts and they lose all their sponsors, they are dead. I explained that in detail here.

RAMONES - ROCK & ROLL RADIO

Well, actually, no. No one in Japan remembers any rock & roll

radio because Japan has never had any.

FM stations in Tokyo cannot survive past 2015 in their current configuration. The government can change the rules all they want to try to keep them breathing but the fact remains the same: Traditional broadcasting days are numbered. FM radio in Japan is already at death's door. 


TV stations like TV Tokyo, TBS and TV Asahi are not far behind.

So, You Want to Work in Japan's Music Industry?

If you really want to be a famous musician or work in the music industry, and you need advice, great! You've come to the right place. I've worked in the music business since 1978. So I have a pretty good idea as to what's going on.


Might as well start of at the beginning with having your dreams crushed like a grape, right? 


Let me tell you aspiring musician that there is absolutely no way. You have zero chance of making it without a hugely one-in-a-trillion lucky break. You have a better chance of winning the lottery. But, on the other hand, this article might be your lucky break!... Then again, you'd probably do well to get a job at a convenience store.


Trust that, by the time you finish reading this article you'll realize that, if you want to work in the music business in Japan, you really might as well get a job at a convenience store. It's really that simple.


But, if you really believe you can "make it," then good for you... Read on...


Yesterday, I had lunch with Aki Morishita the vice president of Fuji Pacific Music Publishing, the biggest music publisher in the world. Aki also has a very high ranking position at EMI Music Publishing too.

Both Aki and I were joined by a young friend who is a musician and song-writer named Andre Dimuzio. Andre, like many other young musicians, is looking for a break into the music industry.

I think he was very surprised by what both Aki and I had to say.

I think many people know that the old way of the music business is dead; record labels are collapsing all around us and the traditional methods of distributing music have also been turned on their heads. 

I've also written before about what these changes mean for TV and radio in Japan  here, here, and here.

CD retail is dying, and along with it the labels and TV and radio are dying a slow death too... 

Both Aki and I joked about how no one can sell any physical product anymore (CDs, etc.) excepting vinyl for club DJ's, but it looks like I could be wrong about that too as Panasonic has announced that they will discontinue production and sales of Technics turn tables.

As the Tokyo Reporter writes:

Fans of analog music were dealt another blow when consumer electronics company Panasonic announced earlier this month that it would be discontinuing the audio products within its Technics brand, most notably the legendary line of analog turntables. On October 20, the company said that it was winding down production of the Technics SL-1200MK6 analog turntable, the SH-EX1200 analog audio mixer and the RP-DH1200 and RP-DJ1200 stereo headphones due to challenges in the marketplace. "Panasonic decided to end production mainly due to a decline in demand for these analog products and also the growing difficulty of procuring key analog components necessary to sustain production," the company said in statement. 

Here, all this time, I had thought that DJ specialty record shops in Tokyo, like Manhattan Records, were doing a good business selling vinyl records. Maybe not.

Like I said, the music business is falling apart in Japan and the old order has definitely shot itself in the foot. Aki said that there are rumors that Tower Records Shibuya won't last to summer 2011. I wrote about that before too. And, after the bankruptcy of a radio station in Nagoya, there are the rumblings of another great upheaval in two big FM stations in Kyushu. 

I thought it was interesting that, during the conversation, I mentioned that the only hope for radio stations in Japan was automation - something they do not want to do as people will lose their jobs... But this morning's news also adds another surprise to the mix.

I had pointed out to my friends that Lawson's Convenience store runs their own in-store radio station. It is called, "Lawson's Hot Station" and while it is total and complete pablum, it does the job that Lawson's needs - and it is a fully automated "radio station."


Lawson's = Smart.

Now, Lawson's takes it one step further as they have taken over HMV records in Japan!

As Nikkei reports:

Lawson Inc. intends to use its takeover of HMV Japan KK to attract young consumers, the biggest users of convenience stores, by tapping the major music and movie retailer's online sales expertise and roughly 4.7 million members. HMV Japan -- which rings up half its annual sales of some 30 billion yen online -- sends out e-mail showcasing new products to customers based on their purchasing histories. The convenience store operator's attention was drawn to the passion of HMV Japan customers toward certain genres of music and movies.

Now, young musician with stars in your eyes, here's a test. Let's see if you can put two and two together... 

Question: If you want a job in the music industry in Japan, you should try to get a job at:

a) a record shop

b) a record label

c) a radio station

d) a convenience store

The correct answer is d.

TV Sets Don't Even Make Beautiful Antique Furniture!

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

If you would have told me fifteen years ago that old style TV and radio were going to die out, I wouldn't have believed you. But now, I can't really see any other way. Oh sure, there will probably always be TV and radio stations, it's just that they won't be these massive companies with thousands of employees that we have today. I foresee them becoming like their cable and satellite competitors. I have written before on some technical reasons, see here and here. Today, I want to write from my own experiences as a 30-year insider and the only foreigner who was ever the general manager of a major Japanese broadcasting station in history.

Not even useful as a future antique

Today, companies like TV Tokyo have over 1,000 employees. A satellite music TV station like Music On! TV has less than eighty. I foresee stations like TV Tokyo becoming the same in five years... This will cause them severe restructuring or bankruptcy. Not good for the shareholders; terrible for employees.

Take your average FM radio station in Japan that has 40 employees... I predict that, if they can even survive the next three ~ five years (which most won't) they will have to find a way to run the station with, not 40 employees, but 5. If they can do that, they have a chance.

With the poor quality of management that many of the stations in Japan have today,  I'll give 40 - 1 odds of that ever happening.

What are they going to do when the only way they can survive and stay competitive is to cut 90% of their workforce, yet Japanese labor laws will not allow such a thing? Talk about stuck between a  rock and a hard place!

What they will have to do is to force older employees into retirement earlier and to cut salaries across the board and hope that employees quit. I have seen this method employed before. The company cut all salaries by 25%. Then, six months later, they cut all salaries by 25% again for a total of 40%. Many employees quit. The problem with this method soon became apparent when it was realized that all the good employees quit because they could find a job somewhere else, but the poor employees, the "dead-wood" stayed.

So the station lost all of its productive employees and was left with the useless ones.

I have worked in TV & radio (the music business) since 1978. When one works in these businesses, there are many "tops of the mountains." In my later career, radio, the top of the mountain was producing, directing, and hosting the morning drive time show Monday - Friday. I did that. We made one of the most famous and successful morning shows in Tokyo history. When that ended in 2009, at 52-years-old, I decided to retire from that business. Why?

It's best to retire when you are at the top of the hill.

Since then, I started another business with some friends whereby we do new methods of marketing and Internet hybrid marketing and PR in immature markets. It's been fun. Through his experience, though, I have been able to go around to most of the major mass media and get a glimpse of what is going on everywhere.

I have had face to face talks with upper management about their struggles and travails in a steady shrinking market; I have been in meetings to discuss strategy and develop methods to generate sales. All of them revolve around using the Internet as, not just a piece of the puzzle, but, in many cases, it has replaced the old media as the "main course" on the plate presented to sponsors and advertisers.

In fact, at one station, the chief of programming admitted to me that he thought it was impossible to sell his old media vehicle, as is, to sponsors.

From these experiences I, too, have come to see the future quite clearly; there is no way for over 70% of the major TV & radio stations to survive in their current state more than 5 years.... I doubt that any major station will be able to survive in their current state past 10 years. In twenty years, there will probably be entirely brand-new names running our media. Who knows? Perhaps Google or Apple will buy out these major media conglomerates? Perhaps, in Japan, Rakuten will own TV Tokyo and turn it into a 24/7 shopping channel? That's the only think that I can see that the station could be useful for...

Still, not even beautiful as an antique

Either way, TV and radio are antiques. Their days are numbered. This admission not from an old Internet hand, but from an old TV/radio hand. Unlike the radios of old, today's TV and radio sets are near useless... They don't even make beautiful furniture to display in the living room.

Like Marc Abela wrote:

I personally think that the days of "TV" as a concept (i.e. you sit there and someone tells you what to watch, when and how) are so totally counted. Hard to put a clear number, is it 2 years left, 5?, 10?, 1? ...

It has been a year and some I have not turned my TV on. Not even once. Really. Weird. But it still sits in my living room. Antique.

Remember this day well, my friends, the day is coming when we are going to tell our children or grand kids that, "there was a time when everyone had a TV in their house...." Those children won't believe us and will say, "What for?"

-------


Keywords:
TV, radio, Google, Mike Rogers, Marketing Japan, Mike in Tokyo Rogers, antique, Rakuten, Apple, TV Tokyo, Music On! TV 

Time Travel: Listen to Tokyo Rose from August 1944

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

The dog days of summer end tomorrow here in Japan...  August is finished. Of course, every year in August, the surrender of Japan in World War II is celebrated... With it the war crimes of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are also remembered....

I was searching through the Internet Archive for something to commemorate this time - but from a different perspective - and I found these recordings of Tokyo Rose.

Iva Toguri D'Aquino

Contrary to what people believe, Tokyo Rose was not just one person. Tokyo Rose was about a dozen different girls broadcasting under the name of Tokyo Rose. The most famous was Iva Toguri D'Aquino.

From Wikipedia:

Toguri called herself "Orphan Ann," she quickly became identified with the moniker "Tokyo Rose", a name that was coined by Allied soldiers and that predated her broadcasts. After the Japanese defeat, Toguri was detained for a year by the U.S. military before being released for lack of evidence.

I think it is absurd to think that some girl on the radio would really know any secret information about Allied troop movements or anything else for that matter. Just like people today... People need a job.

The madness of war! One would hope that we'd learn someday... But judging from what is going on right at this moment... I guess we won't.

Anyway, for your enjoyment and for a short trip into the past, here's some recordings of Iva Toguri D'Aquino... The famous Tokyo Rose.



From the Internet Archive: http://www.archive.org/details/TokyoRose

--------------
Keywords:


Mike in Tokyo, Marketing Japan, Iva Toguri D'Aquino, Tokyo Rose, Mike Rogers, Orphan Ann, Mike in Tokyo Rogers

Why the Digital Conversion Will Destroy TV Tokyo and TBS

Yesterday I wrote about why the conversion in Japan by television stations from analogue to digital is going to wipe out a bunch of FM radio stations. Today I will write about why this will also kill off some of the poorly rated TV stations too (good riddance!).

July 24, 2011. One year from the writing of this article

The digital conversion that is scheduled to occur on July 24, 2011, is going to kill off a bunch of FM radio stations in this country (especially Tokyo) because you will no longer be able to hear FM radio in your Toyota or Nissan without special equipment. The digital sets are not compatible with analogue.

Also, the economic consideration that analogue equipment is not manufactured in Japan anymore plays a big part. It may not be so much a matter of what the consumer wants, but what the manufacturer wants.

From that blog:

After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS, Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions. All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the next generation of car entertainment system. 

Read that entire blog here.

Today's blog will show you why I think this digital conversion is going to kill off TV stations like TV Tokyo and TBS who are consistently last in ratings.

It is important that you good folks have an understanding of the Long Tail to fully grasp this. For a brief explanation of what the Long Tail is, read here and here.

When the digital conversion happens in July of 2011, suddenly there is going to be massive choice on your television. The playing field will be evened quite a bit. Instead of being able to receive just 4 ~ 6 channels like today's analogue TV does, your system will be able to receive hundreds of TV channels.

Now, what happens to people when they are given a choice? Do they stick with watching the same 4 channels, or do they TV zap and try many channels?

History shows us that when people are offered a choice, they will let their own personal tastes dictate what they decide to consume whether we are talking about TV programs, restaurants, clothes, or even  jams and jellies for toast.

Let's use jam and jelly for our example.

Go to any convenience store where shelf space is limited. How many jams and jellies do they offer? 4? 5? Go to any grocery store. How many jams and jellies do they offer? 18? 20? Go to Amazon.com, how many jams and jellies do they offer? Over 1,300.

Now it makes sense that if Joe-blow is buying the lemon-tangerine marmalade made in Holland, that is one less purchase of the generic brand "STRAWBERRY JAM" that he is going to make, right?

Get it? Having more choice doesn't mean that people will buy more jam; it means that people will diversify their tastes. The more people are offered, the more wide-spread their choice becomes, the more dispersed their spending will be. More choices will result in a displacement of time and money from the old choices that were dictated simply due to lack of choice (caused by limitations due to time, money and space).

When people have wide choices they will exercise more discretion 

and more personal taste and freedom of choice

It is the same with TV.

When there are 300 TV channels competing for your attention and sponsor's money - both of these critical factors to the survival of TV (audience and money) will be more widely dispersed.

Think of it this way: You are the maker of, say, outdoor goods like tents, bicycles and barbeques. Say, the price for 25 TV ads on a TV station like TV Tokyo is about $150,000 (USD). The price of 35 TV ads on the sports channel is $14,000. Sure there are more viewers on TV Tokyo, but Sports TV offers a targeted audience of men who like sports (and, by the way, many are probably are married, have families, and like the outdoors).... TV Tokyo's audience ranges from 10-year-olds to 80-year-olds; Sports TV target audience is mainly 30 ~ 50-year-old men.

Now, where would you spend the money if you were the sponsor?

It is obvious that you would go for the Sports TV. It will be the same for all manufacturers whether they make diapers or women's fashion brand shoes. The diaspora of audience will make targeting even more important as time goes by.

But there will still be a place for the catch-all, wide audience accepted platform to advertise hit products; say the new Hollywood Blockbuster or the new Disney Park attraction that appeals to the entire family. Those will still be handled by the old style TV stations. The old style TV station thats target a wide audience will be amply served by today's #1 rated (by far) TV stations: Fuji TV and Nihon TV (at #2)... The stations like TV Tokyo and TBS, who fight it out for last place, will find it more and more difficult to find buyers for their ad space and are headed for very tough times and difficult decisions.

Sports TV can sell TV ads for 1/10th the price of TV Tokyo because they only have about 60 employees... TV Tokyo has over 700! TV Tokyo group has over 1,000!

Guess what? When the playing field is evened, then everyone will have to tighten their belts, but guess who is going to have to fire 50 ~ 70% of their employees and probably merge with another company? TBS and TV Tokyo.

While today, the stations like TV Tokyo and TBS are all crowing about their new digital channel... The content is still the same. Only the broadcasting platform has changed. What makes them think that just by changing platforms that their ratings and income are going to increase? Good question. If anything, their viewership is going to decline due to more choices being offered and some people opting out of buying an expensive new TV (at my home, we opted out of TV over seven years ago and haven't missed it once. I wrote about not having a TV and the benefits of that here and here.)

Today, TV Tokyo's ratings are dead last and they are losing millions of dollars a year and having to borrow massive amounts of money from banks to stay afloat. How long will banks keep lending them money? (Their FM radio subsidiary, InterFM alone is losing somewhere in the neighborhood of one million dollars a year!) What makes TV Tokyo management think that, when digital goes online, and the competition increases one-hundred fold, that their fortunes will get better?

Fuji TV consistently #1 in ratings by far.  

Strong on branding and image and logo is the same each and every time.

I think that they are in for a quite rude awakening, in spite of their current bravado and high hopes that digital is going to save them from their current conundrum... (I've mentioned before that "hope" is a very poor business plan).

I also think that their poorly designed Digital 7 TV logo is a sign of things to come for them. Of course my opinion here is very subjective but I think this logo looks old-fashioned, cheaply designed and not "cool" at all. It looks old-fashioned but not "retro" and looks like a design that wasn't made by a world-class professional. Like I said, it looks very poorly thought out and very cheap. Also, in typical TV Tokyo fashion, every time you see it it is a bit different.... Why don't these guys take classes in Marketing and Branding 101?

This is TV Tokyo's Digital Logo. 

Sorry, guys but this looks really cheap. 

How about some shadows or gradation? 

Why don't you hire a professional designer?

Let me get cute here and say that, I think, in this case, "7", for TV Tokyo is not lucky. In this case, 7 is their second number (on analogue they were channel 12) and if you've ever played Craps, you know that 7 on your second number means, "Loser."

This is why I say that the times they are a changin'... Look for no TV Tokyo and no TBS TV by 2015!

-------

Keywords:

Social Media, FM radio, FM, blogs, Yahoo, U-Stream, AM radio, Nissan, Tokyo, Pick, Twitter, Toyota, TV, YouTube, AM, blog,  Internet, Japan, digital TV, digital radio, Japan, TV Tokyo, TBS TV, 

One More Phase in the Shattering of Mainstream Media

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers

I rode the Tokyo subway today and saw a sign inside the car that notified the passengers that as of July 24, 2011, terrestrial television stations will no longer broadcast analogue signals in Japan and will finally make the switch to digital.

This signals the final nail in the coffin of many of the FM radio stations in this country and the collapse of TV Tokyo and TBS.

I predict that InterFM will either be bankrupt or sold to a new owner by 2014 and TV Tokyo will be in the same situation: insolvent or absorbed by another company by 2016.

I'd like to explain why in this post but first let me give you some important details involving the background of broadcast signals so that you may have a better understanding and why I think this way. Let's see if you come to the same conclusions that I have.

Let's start with AM and FM radio.

AM is called "Amplitude Modulation" and its signal is wavy. When an AM signal comes to an obstacle like a mountain or a tall building, it bounces off of it in many directions and continues going. This is why, in many areas of the United States, there are some AM stations whose broadcasts can be heard over 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) away. The AM signal is like an ocean wave so, if there are no mountains to make the signal deflect into the heavens, the signals will bounce along the earth's surface.

This makes AM radio great for talk and the friend of people who drive long-distance trucks.

FM is called "Frequency Modulation" and it goes in a straight line. When an FM signal hits a mountain, tall building or other obstacle, it stops. We've all had the experience that our favorite FM station drops off when we go through a tunnel or through a valley. That's the shortcoming of FM radio.

What many people do not know is that terrestrial TV uses the same FM frequency for its broadcasts too.

People who were brought up in Japan may remember from their childhood small portable transistor radio that had the AM / FM band on them but also played TV channels NHK and NHK Educational (1 & 3).  If you understand that analogue TV uses FM frequency to broadcast, then you now understand why those old transistor radio's had TV channels on them.

This is important so keep this in mind.

On July 24, 2011, the TV channels will stop broadcasting analogue signals. What this really means is that they will stop using the FM band for transmitting their services and go to terrestrial digital.

FM, Frequency Modulation, is a broadcast wave. Digital broadcasting is not a wave at all. Digital broadcasting is a completely different technology. Digital broadcasting is not a wave, it is binary data.

I suppose that some of you have seen binary data before. It's a series of zero's and one's and looks something like this:

00110010111100101101001110100010000100001000001

00110001000011101110001010101001001000100111000

01011110111101111011011111110010001000001101010

That is binary data. The reason why digital broadcasting is so clear and high quality is that, with binary data, it is either "on" or "off" unlike an AM or FM signal that can be blocked or deflected by tall buildings, mountains or even trees. Binary Data is crystal clear.

Now, how does this spell the end of FM radio? Bear with me here, cause now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

The future of FM radio doesn't lay in what they broadcast or how they up the ante of quality of content (but, of course, it will always be a competition between stations for dwindling audience and sponsorship dollars)...

The future of FM radio depends on what Toyota does.

That's right. Toyota is the one who decides what is going to happen. In my opinion, it is obvious that FM  is is serious trouble and that we are now witnessing the end of an era; and it's happening, in slow motion, right in front of our eyes.

But, don't take my word for it, decide for yourself. Let me explain further...

Think about this: Where do most people listen to FM radio? In cars, right?

The Japanese government and all the big manufacturers in this country, Sony, Panasonic, etc. (who, by the way, all have an incestuous relationship with each other and Toyota in stock holdings) are pushing for the digital conversion big time. These manufacturers need their flagging fortunes to get an injection of sales and profits that new broadcasting and new equipment will generate. Digital equipment costs anywhere from $500 - $2,000 (USD) a set. The Japanese manufacturers want and need for the Japanese public to go whole-hog into digital broadcasting. They need the public to dispose of their analogue equipment and buy the new digital equipment... (By the way, a cursory check of analogue equipment at Bic Camera the other day - what little I could find - showed that all the analogue products were all manufactured outside of Japan).

If digital broadcasting is a failure in this country, then it's going to hurt Japanese manufacturing for a very long time... The analogue equipment I saw was all manufactured in Malaysia, Indonesia, and I found some from Taiwan (which was surprising).

Now, how does Toyota fit into this equation?

Imagine your car dashboard. It has a GPS, CD player, and television/radio set all built together. Most people have an analogue device (with terrible TV reception!) From July 2011 there will be no cars that come with that device. They will all be digital.

After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS, Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions. All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the next generation of car entertainment system. (In Japan, as of now, there are 6 digital radio channels that are shown on CS or BS television. These channels broadcast soft jazz and classical music).

Toyota HD Digital Screen. 

All sorts of fun things like iPod, digital TV and digital radio... 

Do you see FM or AM radio? I don't

Remember I wrote that digital signals are binary data and analogue is a broadcasting wave? This is important now.

I ask you, dear reader, to consider; Since Sony, Panasonic, etc. and companies like Toyota and Nissan all have an incestuous relationship as to stock holdings and company ownership, and they desperately need to have the Japanese public buy their digital devices that cost at least $500 each... And digital devices receive binary data and are not analogue compatible... Do you think that Toyota will cut a hole in your dashboard, just under your $500 digital GPS, TV, Internet, radio device in order to install a $1 dollar made in Indonesia FM tuner?

I don't, and I think it is insane to think otherwise. Actually, the notion is laughable, isn't it?

So, if people can no longer hear FM radio in their cars, then where are they going to listen to it? In the subways with their white earplugs through their iPods and iPhones?... Get serious. Nobody does that now!

If there are any folks reading this who remember how popular short wave was way back when compared to what it is today, then they have a good idea what I think the future of FM radio in Japan looks like....

No FM radio in the car spells doom for the FM stations because if no one can listen in their car, then FM will have no listeners at all... No listeners means no sponsors. No sponsors means no money. No money means no FM...

I cannot imagine how they will survive the next 5 ~ 10 years.

If I were a station like J-Wave - that still has good ratings and high listenership - I'd get into negotiations real soon for an open digital radio channel... And, no, the license and digital conversion are not cheap. We're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. The smaller stations will never afford it, so they are dead.

And that's why July 2011 is the last nail in the coffin of FM radio in Japan.

But what about AM radio you say? Ah, that's the interesting contradiction. AM radio will probably survive. Because AM car radio is the bottom of the pit for basic car equipment (besides nothing at all)... Almost every Tokyo Taxi has an AM radio in it. Few have FM radios.

Tomorrow I will explain why this entire situation bodes ill for TV Tokyo and TBS TV.

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Marketing Japan: Internet Promotions? Don't Make Long Sign-ups!...

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers


If you are running any sort of Internet service, business or promotion that requires people to sign up to join, then at least make the sign up as short and as simple as possible.


Survey results of over 10,000 Internet users (done by Nikkei Shimbun) show that if users must click a site or a banner link more than twice, they probably won't do it.

One of my good friend's tells me how he is working on a huge cross-platform Internet promotion that has all the great pieces to a fantastic Internet Social Media Marketing success… This promotion has everything built in! It has a dedicated website using WordPress; publicity integrating old media and print to draw new potential customers to their Internet sites (they definitely need the over-40 crowd in Japan as those are the people with all the money); A Pick and Twitter component and, of course, online video, blogs, blogging, vlogs, and keywords on Google Search and Yahoo! and much more involving a full spectrum of Social Media Marketing for Japan. This is a marketeers dream come true in the year 2010... Except for one tiny problem... My good friend laments that one of the partners is stuck in old fashioned promotional thinking that doesn't fit well a all with the Internet. 

My friend asked me if I could help provide some evidence that he could show to the partner as proof that the partner's ideas were out-dated and if I could help him to convince the partner to drop these ideas.

Well, I don't know if I can help him convince someone who is stuck in old-fashioned thinking, but I gave him some data and wished him well…

That's what gave me the idea for this blog today. If you come up against the same sort of obstacle, then I hope you can refer back to this particular blog for some ammo to help you fight back.

But first, let me give you some background and then tell you what the partner's idea was. 

The promotion was a tie up between three different companies. One company owns powerful old and new media; one company can give away free vacations; the the company can provide the transport to those vacations. All three companies have a need that overlaps and allows them to help each other out and not pay someone like Dentsu or Hakuhodo $180,000 for a promotion like this... If they cooperate, they can arrange a promotion like this through my friend's company for about $9,000!

The media provider can penetrate into millions of homes and is giving that piece of the puzzle up for free as barter (they want more people to use their media). The media partner also has a massive Internet mailing list and gets over 10 million unique users a month! The problem is, instead of just running a contest where all you need to do is sign up, one of the partner's (who needs all the free promotion they can get) wants to add a quiz to the contest that forces people who wish to enter to have to do some Internet searching and research and answer questions - along with filing in personal information on an Internet sign-up form… Not only will the users  have to click through to several pages, this idea takes them off the contest page… Which makes it a very bad idea.

My friend called me and wrote to me asking for advice. Here's what I wrote:

Dear Ken (not his real name),

This is a very bad idea. From past experience and from Internet research, I must strongly recommend against doing this sort of thing in your promotion. 

Let me explain why: 

This kind of promotional idea is very old fashioned (10 or 20 years old) and will result in a contest whereby less than a few dozen people sign up. As you, can suspect, we know this from experience from mass media promotions. 

It is well known that in Internet marketing that (with data research and user surveys of 10's of thousands of Internet users done by Nikkei Research) that people will not, on average, click on a site more than twice. This sort of idea presented by your partner will result in at least 4 clicks. This will cause a huge number of interested people to drop off immediately. 

If the contest is designed so that people sign up just their name and e-mail, you will get tens of thousands of entries and hundreds of people entering several times. Effective promotion is promotion that people think about often, and can enter often.

If people must go to another page and research information and then answer questions, you will get a few dozen entries. No exaggeration.

This idea is ancient; it is like some newspaper promotional ideas for the past. Also, remember that this is a partnership promotion with benefit to all, I can't imagine that the other two partners - especially the vital media partner - would agree to this. If this partner is paying for the promotion, then I doubt that anyone would complain… But this is a barter. This is a critical point.

Think about your own experience on the Internet in the past: When you had to sign up for something, if it was easy, you did it. If it asked too many questions or became troubles-some, you dropped it. I know I do.

This problem is also talked about on page 257 of "The New Rules of Marketing and PR" by Daivd Meerman Scott. It says, "Do not use a sign-up form that requires your prospects to enter lots of data - people will abandon the form." 

Most recently, when my company did a media promotion (on a TV station and radio station) for a week whereby people only had go to the Internet contest page and  enter their name and e-mail, we got over 9,000 entries. In another campaign, when we required them to go to another page and research a question (That campaign was for a world famous automotive parts company) and all people had to do was go to the auto parts maker's homepage and answer a question we got only 14! Fourteen!? Yes, 14. You read right.

Also, once again, I seriously doubt that your media partner, a company that is a trend leader in Internet marketing will agree to this sort of out of date promotion... After all, they are giving you access to millions of people at a barter. I don't think that you or your partner are in a position to demand this sort of thing from them.

Lastly, think of the damage to you client's name when people think, "Oh? I can win! How nice." Then they go to the contest page and see that they have to do a bunch of things to enter; answer questions, provide personal data, click a bunch of times  to enter in a contest where the chances of winning are about 1 in a million? No way.

The average person will think two things about you and your client. They will associate these two things:

1) You and your client's name

2) Troublesome

You can't have that. The Internet is quick… Buzz on the Internet is fast and it is not forgiving if that buzz is bad.

I strongly suggest that you either convince your client to change their mind, or, if they are insistent, find another partner. There isn't a company in the world who isn't interested in the new way of Marketing, marketing in Japan, and the new rules of PR.

Then I signed off.

I wonder if what I wrote and the data I sent will help at all...We'll see.  

But for you, my dear reader,  if you get anything out of this blog, then make it this: Have online contests as often as possible but do not require people to enter too much information. Ideally, just an e-mail address is best.

Notes: Here is an article about a newspaper in the UK who required an Internet sign-up - for contact that is free - and it seriously damaged their readership numbers. See here. http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/06/incipient-paywall-costing-newspaper-online-readers.ars

There's many companies out and about that are making these mistakes for you so you don't have to… Just pay attention and learn the lessons from them. Now that's intelligent marketing!


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